Extreme variance and bad luck?
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- Hey all,
I guess this will be seen as a sort of whine post, which is kind of is. I'm looking for some words of motivation to continue playing after my recent downswing.
I'm currently working on my second bonus at bet365. After having wagered $2800 (by using $1 bets, one at a time) I am down to $250 (of $400) which is really frustrating because the EV is $170. Is this 'normal' or is it just extreme variance that only happends from time to time?
I'm really hoping I can still finsih this bonus with profit at the moment, or hope for a gigantic upswing (which I haven't really experienced before...) to get me back to $300+.
Sorry if this is a bit of a whine post, I just wanted to release my frustrations somewhere.
- hi mickske,
dont lose your faith...you are dealing here with ( i wouldnt say extreme) variance, but that is very common.EV or the estimated value, is just that valuation, and your result could be over EV or below ...I ran to bad streak on numerous occasions, but i also had lots of good runs..The main key is to play by the book/strategy no matter what.
To be honest it is possible( but highly unlikely) to lose even some % of your deposit...but in the long run youll make enough profit, believe me..
my first profit was only $10,but i was happy anyway...so keep up the faith, if u dont win this one, there is always the next bonus....
- mickske wrote:
Hey! Thanks for your kind words, that was what I was looking for.
I'll give it a rest and continue to clear the bonus on monday.
keep us posted about your result.
- Hi all,
I'm new to this forum.
I've just had a nightmarish case of what appears to be extreme variance on Blackjack. The casino will (for now) remain nameless but I am desperately seeking advice on what to do next.
My story is this:
I have been playing online Blackjack for a while now at numerous casinos utilising the sign up and reload bonuses. I use basic strategy and while I have had some disappointing losses, I have also had some good wins and overall have gained a fair profit off the bonuses.
A month ago, one casino (which I also use for sportsbetting) offered a casino sign up bonus of $500 with a WR of $20,000. I used $10 stakes and when I was through I had lost the bonus, but not my stake. Disappointing of course, but not the end of the world and probably not incredibly unlikely, just unfortunate.
Anyway, for reasons which will become clear in a moment, I added up the results of the first 531 hands and it came out: Win: 241 (45%) Lose: 251 (47%) Push: 39 (8%)
Quite reasonable percentages wouldn't you say? Well within EV.
OK, now last week this same casino offered me a reload bonus of $250 with a WR of $10,000. Fine, I thought, let's hope I have better luck this time...
I already had $1350 in my account from previous deposits and sports betting. The bonus pushed it up to $1600. Anyway, I started wagering at Blackjack again at $10 a hand and again using basic strategy. Over time, I just kept losing and losing and losing. That's not to say I lost every hand of course. However, after just 350 hands, I had lost the entire $1600!
To check I was not just losing my mind, I then deposited a further $50, but this time wagered just $1 stakes. Again, the losses just kept coming and I went bankrupt after a further 180 hands. :-(
My results were: Win: 135 (25%) Lose: 354 (67%) Push: 41 (8%)
By my calculations, the chance of this happening (or worse) is unbelievably crazy - like about one in 800,000,000,000,000,000.
If this is not enough proof, I counted the number of Blackjacks throughout the session. Correct me if I am wrong, but the player has the same chance of getting a Blackjack as the dealer. Again, a little variance is to be expected but the results were: Player: 6 BJ (11%), Dealer: 47 BJ (89%). I make the minimum chance of this happening (or worse) to be one in 354,000,000.
I seriously suspect something extremely dodgy is going on here and obviously I am gutted at losing well over $1000. Can anyone here help me please? Is there an ombudsman I can go to, or should I contact the casino first?
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
- First of all let me say that I feel really bad just by reading your story as I (and i'm sure everyone on this forum) can easily relate to it.
Seems dogdy to be honesT, if casino is not blacklisted on any reputable casino watchdogs, i would advise you to send email to Wizardofodds.com to cofirm your calculations. If he confirms them, would you post the name of the casino please?
I'm saying that cause though I'm not mathematician, I've had a lot of losses in me time (With Littlewoods i've lost 80% of my deposits) but still chances would be i think much higher than 1 in 800,000,000,000,000,000.
Supply data to Wizard and he'll be able to tell you what's going on. You can also check his 'Propability of ruin' chart for BJ he's got somewhere on his page. Bare in mind that by playing 10$ stakes you have lost 160 units in total. The most I've won in a single go was 80 units (of 5$ = 400$ ) and it felt like the system is cheating (in my favour this time though). So i can only image how losing 160 units can fell like. Still i would recommend consulting a proffesional (Wizard that is)
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